Title：Consumption Stimulating and Policy Choice Under the Impact of Covid -19 Epidemic Shock
Abstract：We analyzed the consumption-stimulating policies from 190 countries/ regions around the world since the outbreak of the Covid -19 Epidemic. Logistic regression was used to identify the factors that influence a country's decision to implement consumption-stimulating policies. The importance of these factors was ranked using the random forest model. Our findings include: First，economic,social，and political variables all affect whether a country implements consumption-stimulating policies. The higher the proportion of the elderly population， the higher the unemployment rate, the lower the level of fiscal spending and the more diverse the electoral process, the more likely it is that the government of that country will implement a consumption boosting policy. Second， policymakers mainly consider policy effect, policy space and implementation methods when deciding on whether to issue vouchers. The higher its savings rate， the higher its share of the tertiary sector, the higher its level of fiscal spending and the lower its level of legal system sophistication, the more likely the country's government is to issue vouchers. Our results can serve as reference for policy makers when deciding on how to react to external shocks through consumption-stimulating policies. Our conclusions also provide theoretical and empirical support for China's voucher policy.
Key Words：Consumption Stimulation Voucher Cash Subsidy
摘要：新冠疫情期间各级政府的财政调控是有为政府的典型实践。本文构建包含“疫情冲击”“财政分权”“异质性地区”的多部门动态随机一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium,DSGE)模型,研究特殊时期央地两级政府和不同地区地方政府财政支出政策的“稳增长”和“稳就业”效果。研究发现:第一,新冠疫情冲击下发达地区GDP增长率和居民消费水平的下降幅度明显大于欠发达地区,欠发达地区劳动力就业受到的影响更明显;第二,央地财政支出均带动了经济复苏,地方政府财政支出对当地经济增长和就业的促进作用更明显;第三,中央和欠发达地区政府的投资性支出对私人消费和私人投资产生了“挤出效应”,发达地区投资性支出发挥了一定的引致效用;第四,地方政府的投资性支出带动了本地区和其他地区的就业,发达地区投资性支出对就业的促进作用更明显。未来需基于央地财政实力和各地经济现实,兼顾财政政策的短期和中长期效应,优化财政支出结构,强化地方政府职能,实现有效市场与有为政府的高效结合。
Title：Promising Government,Fiscal Decentralization and the Effectiveness of Central and Local Fiscal Expenditures:The Perspective of New Structural Economics
Abstract：The fiscal regulations of governments at all levels during the COVID-19 epidemic are typical practices of promising governments. This paper constructs a multi-sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes“epidemic impact”“fiscal decentralization”and “ heterogeneous regions"，and studies the effectiveness of fiscal expenditure of central and local governments. The study found that: first, under the impact of the epidemic, the decline in GDP growth and resident consumption in developed regions was greater than that in underdeveloped regions， and labor employment in underdeveloped regions was more significantly affected; second， central and local fiscal expenditures drove economic recovery ; the promotion effect of local government fiscal expenditure is more obvious than central government fiscal expenditure; third,the investment expenditure of the central government and the government of less developed regions has a“Crowding out effect"，investment expenditure in developed regions has played a certain positive role; fourth，investment expenditure of local governments has driven employment in different regions, and investment expenditure in developed regions is more effective. In the future, it is necessary to take into account the short-term, medium-term and long-term effects of fiscal control policies，optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures, strengthen the functions of local governments, and achieve an efficient combination of effective markets and promising governments.
Key Words：COVID-19ImpactRegional Heterogeneity Promising Government Fiscal Decentralization Fiscal Expenditure
Title： Debt Structure, Bankruptcy Decision
Mechanism and Firm Value
Abstract：This paper studies the influence of debt structure and bankruptcy decision mechanism on firm value. In view of two types of possible bankruptcy decision errors-the first type is “should go bankrupt but choose not to go bankrupt"，and the second type is “should not go bankrupt but choose to go bankrupt”-this paper finds that: first, the introduction of too many junior creditors or large creditors will lead to “too few”liquidation， increasing the probability of the first type of errors; On the contrary, if too many senior creditors or small creditors are introduced, it will lead to “too many”liquidation and increase the probability of the second type of errors. The optimal debt structure depends on the balance of the two effects. Second, a low critical value of the voting at creditors' meetings will increase the probability of the first type of error, while a high critical value will increase the probability of the second type of error. The optimal bankruptcy decision mechanism should be adjusted according to the firm with different debt structure characteristics, so that the creditors who can make the optimal decision become the decisive role in the voting. This paper provides a general theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between debt structure, bankruptcy decision mechanism and firm value.
Key Words：Debt Structure Bankruptcy ProcedureCorporate Governance Bankruptey Law
Title：The Essence of The Sharing Economy: A Perspective of Transaction Configuration
Abstract：As one of the umbrella constructs in social science，“sharing economy” is currently unclear in connotation and boundary. To maintain the rigor of the construction of sharing economy and clarify its connotation and boundary, it is necessary to deeply understand the essence of sharing economy. This paper, employing comparative method as the basic analytical tool and transaction as the starting point and basic unit of the analysis，constructs a general analysis framework of transaction configurations consisting of first-order dimensions of three core elements of transaction with the typology strategy from the perspective of configuration， and accordingly reveals the essence of the sharing economy. The Sharing economy is a special market transaction phenomenon in which the punctuated or non-punctuated continuous users of resources temporarily transfer the reversible access of resources for economic benefits. The sharing economy is a subset of the rental economy,or, more accurately, a subset of the short-term rental economy. As a transactional peripheral element, the internet reduces transaction costs by changing the time and place of transactions, improving transaction speed,and reducing intermediate links,thus affecting the boundary of the sharing economy.
Key Words：Sharing Economy Transaction Configuration
Title：Transaction Efficiency,Digital——An Inframarginal General Equilibrium Analysis of the Advertising and Social Welfare Evolution of the Division of Labor Networks
Abstract： The transition from mass advertising to digital advertising which is driven by the change of transactional technology and institutional has important influenceon the production and distribution of digital dividends. This article regards advertising transformation as the evolution process of the division of labor, and uses the new classical inframarginal analysis models and numerical simulation methods, reveals the evolution mechanism of the division of labor in the transformation of mass advertising to computing advertising and intelligent advertising, and explains the impact of this structural change on digital welfare effect. The study found that the way of matching advertising information with the audience, the way of providing free advertising interference services, and the way the audience interacts with the advertising platform constitute the core difference between mass advertising and computing advertising and intelligent advertising division network; when the division of labor network in the final product and free When the comprehensive leaning cost of advertising interference services is high, smart advertising will become a balanced division of labor, and when this comprehensive learning cost is low, continuous improvement in market transaction efficiency which is driven by the change of transactional technology and institutional will promote the transformation of mass advertising to a division of computing advertising and smart advertising;Advertisers with a higher degree of specialization economy will use advertising information with a higher creative level to achieve intelligent and precise matching with professional audiences through computational advertising or intelligent advertising models; the evolution of advertising division of labor network can promote labor productivity and labor resource allocation Efficiency,market scale effect,network connection value and real income per capita increase in digital welfare effects. This article not only provides a new theoretical perspective for understanding the transformation of advertising model, but also has practical enlightenment value for promoting the high-quality development of the advertising industry and economy.
Key Words：Digital AdvertisingTrading System Division of Labor Network Social Welfare Inframarginal Analysis
Title：Digital Empowerment，Credit Supervision and Foreign Direct Investment
Abstract：Credit supervision is an important measure to promote the construction of China's social credit system and improve the efficiency of national modern governance. This paper takes 248 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2019 as a research sample, and uses the commercial credit environment index of prefecture-level cities reported in the “Blue Book of China’s Urban Commercial Credit Environment Index”issued by the State InformationCenter for Commerce to measure the level of credit supervision in prefecture-level cities, and examine the important role of credit regulation in economic development. Empirical research shows that: the implementation of credit supervision has a significant positive effect on the inflow of foreign direct investment. This effect is mainly achieved by improving the level of innovation and entrepreneurship in the region, and there is heterogeneity due to differences in the size of regions and cities. At the same time, the level of regional digital development plays a significant supporting role in the realization of the role of credit supervision， and the rule of law environment also has a significant synergistic effect with credit supervision. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a solid digital foundation for credit supervision， improve credit supervision legislation,and build a more legal, honest， and efficient business environment, so as to form new advantages in attracting foreign investment and promote the high-quality development of an open economy.
Key Words：Credit Supervision Foreign Direct InvestmentRule of Law
Title：Digital Economy,Institutional Quality and Industrial Agglomeration: An Empirical Study
Abstract：This paper delves into the intricate relationship between the digital economy , institutional quality，and industrial agglomeration. The study reveals that the impact of the digital economy on industrial agglomeration is variable. When enterprises rely heavily on external sources for their digital transformation，the digital economy has a negative effect on industrial agglomeration. Furthermore, the negative effect is intensified by higher institutional quality and more advanced digital infrastructure. The role of the digital economy in industry aggregation will only become positive when companies increasingly rely on internal digital construction. In this process, institutional quality exhibits a non-linear moderating effect. Its role in the relationship between the digital economy and industrial agglomeration is negative at low institutional quality, which gradually weakens as institutional quality improves. When institutional quality reaches a certain threshold level, its role becomes a positive incentive. These findings provide crucial insights into the diverse impacts of the digital economy on industrial agglomeration，subject to variations in institutional quality. It is highly significant for industrial organizations to leverage digital factors and fully benefit from digital economy development.
Key Words：Digital Economy Institutional Quality Industrial Aggregation Moderating Intermediary Effects
Title：Planned Talent Management System，Innovation Ability and Regional Economic Growth
This article takes the“TS” series talent project in a province of our country as an example to study how the planned talent management system affects regional economic growth. Firstly,the fixed-effect model is used to estimate that the talent project has a significant role in promoting economic growth, and the results pass the endogenous test and robustness test. Secondly, the results of the mediating effect model show that innovation ability has a mediating effect between talents and regional economic growth,the mediating effect accounts for 20.17% of the total effect, which has passed the 5% significance test. Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from the perspective of improving talent increment and talent utilization efficiency.
Key Words：Talent Management System Innovation Ability Economic Growth
Title：Why the System Innovation of Pilot Free Trade Zone Improves Urban Total Factor Productivity
The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that we should “focus on improving total factor productivity " when making strategic plans for achieving high-quality development. Based on the construction of pilot free trade zones, the exploration of “institutional innovation” with Chinese characteristics not only has the general characteristics of institutional quality improvement and change revealed by the existing theoretical research, but also has the regional characteristics of “adapting to local conditions and exploring differences” of institutional quality improvement. The above dual features can promote the improvement of urban global factor productivity. From the perspective of specific mechanism, the improvement of urban total factor productivity can be promoted mainly through three mechanisms: improving urban innovation capacity, promoting the optimization and upgrading of urban industrial structure, and optimizing the allocation of government financial resources to improve financial science and technology expenditure. Guided by theoretical analysis and using the machine learning text analysis method,this paper quantitatively evaluates the institutional innovation index of pilot free trade zones and empirically analyzes the practical impact of institutional innovation of pilot free trade zones on total factor productivity by using the panel data of the cities where the pilot free trade zones are located from 2013 to2020 based on the two-way fixed effect method. The empirical results confirm the correctness of the above theoretical hypothesis. This study not only expands the analysis of influencing factors of urban total factor productivity from the level of institutional innovation of free trade pilot zones, but also has important implications for how to use institutional innovation of free trade pilot zones to further improve urban total factor productivity and boost our high-quality development.
Key Words：Pilot Free Trade Zone Institutional Innovation Urban Total Factor Productivity
摘要： 本文使用四期中国健康与养老追踪调查(China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study,CHARLS)数据,采用工具变量法等计量方法,研究社会基本养老保险对农村居民劳动参与的影响问题,为养老保险对劳动参与影响的替代效应和收入效应提供理论解释和实证依据,并对比居民和职工两种养老保险的政策效果。研究表明:基本养老保险对劳动参与的影响是替代效应和收入效应并存的。在参保缴费阶段,替代效应较收入效应占据主导地位,参与城乡居民养老保险会增加农村居民的劳动参与。在养老金领取阶段,养老保险仅存在收入效应,参保将促使农村老年人退出劳动力市场。相较于城乡居保,职工养老保险对农村老年人的保障效果更好,职工养老保险对养老金领取阶段农村老年人劳动参与率的降低幅度大于城乡居保;城乡居保主要影响农村居民的农业劳动参与,而职工养老保险对农村居民的农业和非农劳动参与均表现出显著的负向影响。养老保险;劳动参与;替代效应;收入效应
Title：The Effect of Social Pension on Labor Force Participation in Rural China:Income Effect or Substitution Effect?
Abstract：Based on the four-wave panel data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)from 2011-2018，via instrument variable and other methods, this paper studies the impact of social pension on labor force participation in rural China. We provide theoretical explanations and empirical evidence for the substitution effect and income effect of social pension on labor force participation, and focus on comparing two pension systems between workers and residents. The results are as follows. Both substitution effect and income effect are shown in the effect of social pensions on people's labor force participation in rural China. In the pension payment stage, the substitution effect will dominant the income effect. Social Pension has a positive impact on people's labor force participation. In the pension-receiving stage,there is only an income effect; pension programs will prompt the rural elderly to withdraw from the labor market. Compared with social endowment insurance for urban and rural residents,the worker's basic endowment insurance has a better effect on protecting the elderly in rural areas. The labor force participation rate reduced by worker's pension is much higher than the resident's one. The pension for residents mainly affects people's labor force participation in the agricultural sector, while the worker's pension has a significant negative impact on both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.
Key Words：PensionLabor Force ParticipationIncome Effect Substitution Effect